Solar PPA Prices Fell for the First Time in Two Years. Wind Didn't.

Data current to 20 August 2026.

North American solar PPA prices fell 4.8% quarter on quarter to $61.40/MWh in LevelTen Energy's Q2 2026 index, published 21 July 2026 - the first quarterly price decrease for solar in two years. Wind moved the other way, rising 5.5% quarter on quarter and 17.5% year on year. The index is based on 266 offers from 185 projects.

Two technologies in the same market, in the same quarter, moving in opposite directions. The explanation sits mostly on the buy side.

The caveat that changes the size of the move

LevelTen's headline solar decline is 4.8%. Excluding CAISO, it is 1.8%.

That is a substantial difference, and both figures are published. A near-5% quarterly decline reads as a market-wide repricing. A 1.8% decline outside California reads as a regional effect with a modest national spillover. The honest position is to carry both numbers rather than choosing the more dramatic one.

The index also covers North America including Canada, and reflects offers submitted in the 90 days to 15 June 2026. It is a forward-looking offer index, not a record of executed contracts.

Source: LevelTen Energy Q2 2026 North American PPA Price Index, published 21 July 2026; offers submitted in the 90 days to 15 June 2026; North America including Canada.

Why the buy side softened

LevelTen attributes part of the movement to softening corporate and industrial demand amid revisions to the GHG Protocol - the accounting standard that governs how companies report emissions, and therefore what a renewable PPA is worth to a corporate buyer for reporting purposes.

When the rules determining the reporting value of a contract are under revision, buyers defer. That is rational behaviour and it reduces competitive tension in offer processes, which shows up as price.

A pricing index measures what buyers will pay. When the accounting value of the product is uncertain, they pay less, or wait.

Why wind moved the other way

Wind and solar face different supply-side constraints in 2026.

Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, both technologies face accelerated termination of the Section 45Y production credit and Section 48E investment credit, with a 4 July 2026 beginning-of-construction deadline determining whether a project escapes a 31 December 2027 placed-in-service requirement. But the pipelines behind them are differently constituted. Wind development in the US has been constrained for several years by permitting, supply chain and interconnection factors that solar has faced less acutely, leaving less deliverable near-term wind capacity to compete for the same offtake demand.

A 17.5% year-on-year increase is consistent with constrained supply meeting stable demand.

What this means alongside rising input costs

The pricing move matters more in combination with the cost side than on its own.

Section 232 Proclamation 11052, signed 6 August 2026 and effective 4 December 2026, sets a minimum import price of $0.38/W on modules alongside a 15% ad valorem tariff. Softening offtake prices against a floor on module cost compresses development margin from both directions. That interaction is examined in what the 4 December deadline does to procurement.

For projects with modules already secured at pre-proclamation pricing, the margin effect is limited to the revenue side. For projects with open procurement into 2027, both variables are moving unfavourably at once.

What it does not mean

One quarter is not a trend, and this one carries a large regional component. A 1.8% ex-CAISO decline is well within the range of ordinary quarterly variation in an offer index.

It is also worth noting what the index does not capture. It measures offers, not executions, and it covers North America rather than the US alone. Projects with existing contracted offtake - including the 95%-contracted Aypa Power portfolio behind Brookfield's agreed $7bn enterprise value acquisition announced 22 July 2026 - are insulated from spot movements in offer pricing entirely. That contracted profile is examined in the repricing of standalone storage.

What to watch

The Q3 2026 LevelTen index is the test. If solar prices decline again outside CAISO, the buy-side softening is structural rather than a GHG Protocol timing effect. If they recover, this quarter reflected buyers waiting for accounting clarity rather than withdrawing.

Progress on the GHG Protocol revisions themselves is the leading indicator. Corporate demand for renewable PPAs is substantially a function of what the contracts are worth for reporting purposes, and that question is currently open.

For the broader market context, see how to read the 2026 US solar split.